Retirement income education  ·  Reviewed October 7, 2026  ·  By Nazim Lokhandwala

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The short version. There is no single safe withdrawal rate. Research points to a range, roughly 3.9% to 4% for steady inflation-adjusted spending, and higher if you can adjust spending along the way. The better question is how much you need from savings after Social Security and other income. [1, 2]

What a rate means in dollars

Starting rateOn $500,000On $1,000,000On $1,500,000
3.9% (Morningstar base case)$19,500$39,000$58,500
4% (Bengen)$20,000$40,000$60,000
About 6% (flexible spending, Morningstar)$30,000$60,000$90,000

Arithmetic only. The first-year amount is then adjusted for inflation under the rules of each method. Flexible methods adjust spending up and down. Rates come from [1, 2].

Start with the gap, not the portfolio

Researchers' rates apply to the part of spending that must come from savings. Social Security, a pension, and other income reduce that amount. The Morningstar base case, for example, excludes Social Security and other income. [1]

Worked example (hypothetical). Spending of $70,000 a year, less $30,000 of Social Security and pension, leaves a $40,000 gap. At a 4% starting rate, the portfolio needed is $40,000 divided by 0.04, which is $1,000,000. At 3.9%, it is about $1,026,000. At a flexible 6%, it is about $667,000, but the spending would vary.

Three ways to set the amount each year

  • Fixed, inflation-adjusted. The 4% rule method. Predictable, but does not respond to the market. [2]
  • Guardrails. Start higher (5.2% to 5.6% in the authors' simulations with 65% or more in stocks) but cut after poor results and raise after good ones. [4]
  • Required minimum distribution method. Divide the balance by an IRS factor each year, so spending rises and falls with the portfolio. The IRS Uniform Lifetime Table factor is 26.5 at age 73 (about 3.8%) and 24.6 at age 75 (about 4.1%). [5] See our RMD guide. These factors are for required withdrawals from pre-tax accounts, not a safe-spending rule.

What these rates leave out

  • Taxes. A withdrawal from a pre-tax account is generally taxable income. See Taxes on Retirement Income. [3]
  • Costs. Investment and advisory fees reduce what is left. [3]
  • Length. Studies used 30 years. A longer retirement calls for a lower start or more flexibility. [1, 3]
  • Big one-time costs. Health and long-term care costs may not fit a steady rate.

Also see The 4% Rule and Sequence-of-Returns Risk.

Work through these with your numbers

  • What do I expect to spend each year, and how much of that is essential?
  • How much will Social Security and other income cover?
  • What gap must my savings fill, and how large a portfolio does each rate imply?
  • Could I accept spending that changes from year to year?
  • What happens to the plan if I live to 95?

Plan a conversation

Frequently asked questions

How much can I safely withdraw from my savings each year?

Research gives a range: about 3.9% to 4% for steady inflation-adjusted spending over 30 years, and higher if you can adjust spending. Your number depends on your situation.

Should I include Social Security when I calculate a withdrawal rate?

Start with the gap. Subtract Social Security and other income from your spending, and the rest is what savings must produce.

What is the RMD method?

Dividing the account balance by an IRS factor each year so spending moves with the portfolio. It is a required-withdrawal rule, not a safe-spending rule.

About this guide. This is general education, not tax, legal, or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation. Historical results do not predict the future. The examples are hypothetical and are not forecasts.

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